Sustained Growth Forecast for Newry, Mourne and Down Economy

Employment across Newry, Mourne and Down is forecast to increase by at least 5,530 jobs over the next decade, taking the district workforce to approximately 85,590 by 2035.

A breakdown of Newry, Mourne and Down District Council’s Economic Outlook has been compiled by Ulster University Economic Policy Centre (UUEPC) which highlights the ongoing strength in Northern Ireland’s labour market, despite local and global challenges.

UUEPC’s inhouse forecasting model is used to produce two economic scenarios – baseline and upper – for the NI economy across a range of indicators, with the Outlook forecasting job growth of 1.0 % this year, with NI reaching over one million jobs by 2032.

With the district’s workforce predicted to increase to around 85,590 under the baseline scenario by 2035, the figure increases to 88,150 people in work in Newry, Mourne and Down over the same period under the upper scenario.

Both scenarios suggest sustained employment growth over the next decade, with district employment reaching a new height under either and outpacing the NI average.

The figures were confirmed at a meeting of Newry, Mourne and Down District Council’s Economy, Regeneration and Tourism Committee on 12 October, revealing the number of payroll employees across the district reached a high of 73,410 in July 2026, a 1.3% increase from the same month in 2025.

Moving forward, Newry, Mourne and Down is forecast to have positive employment prospects and an improving business environment, with rising productivity and supporting the growth and survival of businesses viewed as important to translate this dynamism into a higher value economy.

Jobs within the district remain concentrated in wholesale and retail, health and social work and manufacturing. Over the 10-year forecast period, the construction, hospitality and manufacturing sectors are expected to be the major contributors to the baseline growth of 5,530 jobs, accounting for 45% of total growth.

The sectoral composition of the growth reflects the district’s broad employment base, with future job growth increasingly driven by construction and service-based sectors. Under the baseline scenario, 1,180 additional jobs are expected to be created in the construction industry, with an estimated 1,620 jobs under the upper scenario.

Hospitality is projected to expand indicating the growing demand for labour market skills compatible with the service sector, with health and social care forecast to add 610 jobs over the next decade under a baseline scenario, reflecting the demographic pressures and ongoing demand in this particular sector.

Job vacancy levels remain comparatively low, with 13.8 vacancies per 1,000 residents in Newry, Mourne and Down in 2025/26, compared with 20.9 across NI.

Over the next decade, the Real Gross Added Value (GVA) – the measure of the value of goods produced in an area, industry or economy sector - is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2%, reaching approximately £4.8 billion in the district by 2035.

Newry, Mourne and Down District Council Chairperson, Councillor Glyn Hanna said, “The UUEPC’s forecasts are encouraging and represent increasing confidence in our district, confirming the area remains a place to invest in and create jobs.

“The prospect of at least 5,530 additional jobs over the next decade demonstrates the resilience of our local economy and the strength of the diverse industries that underpin it. The Council remains committed to working with businesses, the education sector, investors and government partners to create the conditions for sustainable economic growth.”

Cllr Hanna added: “By supporting innovation, improving productivity, developing skills and helping businesses thrive, we can ensure this economic forecast growth translates into high-quality employment opportunities and a stronger, more prosperous economy for everyone in Newry, Mourne and Down.”

In supporting sustained growth Newry, Mourne and Down Labour Market Partnership (NMD LMP) helps ensure that local skills and employability provision responds to the changing needs of the district’s economy.

Working collaboratively with employers and partners, NMD LMP identifies labour market challenges and develops targeted interventions that support people into employment, strengthen the local skills base and help businesses access the workforce they need to grow. Details of the initiatives for 26/27 are available at https://www.newrymournedown.org/skills-and-employability